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Turkish lira surges after the CBRT shocked markets with 750 basis points rate hike

USDTRY was sharply lower on Thursday, falling two full figures so far, following unexpectedly big CBRT’s rate hike.

Steep fall from new record high (27.242) posted on Wednesday, hit so far the lowest in nearly two months, with prospects for deeper drop, as lira received strong support from the central bank’s latest decision.

The CBRT shocked markets on Thursday by decision to raise interest rates by 750 basis points to 25% vs widely expected 250 basis points hike to 20%.

The decision sparked a rarely seen lira’s rally (the biggest daily advance since Dec 20, 2021) and signal a radical turn in the CBRT’s approach to monetary policy.

Turkish policymakers, among which are three new members, showed unity in making decision and confirmed readiness to act accordingly and in a timely manner to cool high inflation which hit 48% this month.

The subsequent market reaction was very positive, and boost hopes that lira’s larger fall might be running out of steam, as today’s decision shows that the central bankers are determined to put inflation under control and also marks a U-turn from their recent unorthodox approach.

USDTRY was down around 7% in immediate reaction to the central bank’s surprise decision and hit its lowest point in almost two months.

Fresh weakness penetrated thick ascending daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 23.206 and 25.751) with close within the cloud to reinforce fresh bearish signals and open way for lira’s further recovery.

Firm break of cracked initial Fibo support at 25.390 (23.6% of 19.390/27.242) would increase bearish pressure and expose next pivotal support at 24.244 (Fibo 38.2%).

Profit-taking after a sharp fall may slow bears, but upticks are expected to be limited and offer better opportunities for selling USDTRY, after the CBRT’s decision changed overall sentiment and made lira attractive for investors after a long time.

Res: 26.222; 26.645; 26.942; 27.242
Sup: 25.751; 25.390; 25.201; 24.754