US CRUDE OIL – extended rally cracks key $57.90 barrier
WTI oil rose further on Wednesday, extending bullish acceleration of the previous day and cracked target at $57.90 (08 Nov former top).
Bullish near-term structure was boosted by disruption of Canada – US pipeline and API crude stocks report which showed bigger than expected draw in crude inventories.
Full retracement of $57.90/$54.80 pullback is bullish signal for continuation of broader uptrend, however, the price may show stronger hesitation to finally break higher on overbought slow stochastic on daily chart.
Consolidation should ideally stay above $57.00 handle (session low) with extended downticks to be contained by 10SMA ($56.42) to keep bulls intact.
Otherwise, increased downside risk could be expected on sustained break below 10SMA, with scenario being supported by bearish divergence, forming on daily RSI / MACD.
EIA weekly crude stocks report is in focus today. Inventories are expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels, compared to last week’s build of 1.8 million barrels. Release at forecasted level or below is expected to further boost oil price.
Close above $57.90 will be strong bullish signal.
Res: 57.96; 58.63; 59.08; 59.82
Sup: 57.51; 57.02; 56.42; 55.73