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US hiring strongly beats expectations in March – NFP

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 303K in March, compared to slightly lower revised February’s figure (270K from 275K) and strongly beat median expectations for 212K rise.

Stronger than expected US hiring in March while wages continue to rise steadily, signals the economy was in a good shape in the first three months of the year, which may delay widely expected Fed interest rate cuts this year. 

The US economy continues to outperform its global peers, despite having the highest interest rate in the group, after the central bank raised rates by 525 basis points in the campaign since March 2022, in continuous efforts to bring high inflation under control.
US consumer spending remains so far well supported by quite stable situation in households, in comparison to other major economies, while the labor market has also benefited from increased immigration, which helped particularly in construction and similar sectors and contributed to stability and brighter outlook in labor sector growth, even if hiring slows. 

Other key report showed average hourly earnings rising 0.3% in March after gaining 0.2% in February, while the annualized figure eased last month but is still high at 4.1, as wage growth at 3%-3.5% monthly pace is seen as consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Markets widely expect the US central bank to start easing interest rates in June, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his speech earlier this week, expressed cautiousness, saying that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates after leaving its policy rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range last month and reiterated that any decision will be driven by economic data.

The third report from the US labor sector showed that unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February and remained below 4% for more than two years, in the longest such run in over six decades.

Economists expect supply in labor market to increase in coming months, which could allow the Fed to let the economy run a little bit stronger before starting to cut rates.