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US inflation rises above expectations in January

Inflation in the United States rose above expectations in January amid rises in the costs of shelter and healthcare, but January’s increase is unlikely to have stronger impact on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the first half of this year.

US consumer price index rose by 0.3% in January after advancing 0.2% in December, while annualized inflation increased 3.1% last month, down from 3.4% in December, but came above 2.9% forecast.

So called core inflation, stripped for volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.4% month on month, up from 0.3% in December / forecast, while annualized core CPI was unchanged at 3.9% in January, although missed expectations for 3.7% increase.

Although January’s numbers were slightly worse than expected, US inflation remains in a downward trajectory from 9.1% peak, reached in June 2022, adding to hopes that the US central bank will start easing its monetary policy after interest rates peaked at 5.25%/5.50% range (current) following a massive 525 basis points increase since March 2022.

Rise of housing and healthcare’s share in total figure were the main contributors to January’s figures, although economists are not worried much and see current rise as temporary phenomenon, with negative factors expected to fade in the near future.

Encouraging signs, such as continuous decrease in personal consumption expenditure, indicator closely watched by the Fed, keep optimism that inflation will remain on the way towards 2% target and offset the warnings that consumer prices were elevated in January.

Markets anticipate that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates in the first half of this year, with more optimistic expectations that the action will start in May and those who expected the first rate cut in June.