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US non-farm payrolls surge well above expectations in December, unemployment rate falls
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The US labor market displayed unexpected strength in December, ending the year on a robust note. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000, significantly exceeding economists’ expectations of a 160,000 increase. This came after a revised November gain of 212,000, lower than the previously reported 227,000.
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, reflecting a resilient labor market despite the Federal Reserve’s series of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.
Wage growth continued, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% in December following a 0.4% increase in November. Over the 12 months through December, wages grew 3.9%, slightly down from the 4.0% annual rate recorded in November.
Higher wages have supported consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity, despite signs of broader hiring deceleration.
The labor market’s resilience is powering economic expansion well above the Fed’s estimated non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. However, uncertainty looms due to potential policy shifts from President-elect Donald Trump, such as the imposition of tariffs and large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants, which could disrupt economic momentum.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting revealed cautious optimism, with most officials advocating a careful approach to further interest rate reductions. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in December, bringing it to a range of 4.25%-4.50% and marking a total of 100 basis points of easing since September.
However, the Fed now anticipates only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to the four projected earlier, signaling confidence in the economy’s durability despite persistent inflationary pressures.