USDCHF fresh attempts above parity ease downside risk but close above needed for firmer bullish signal
The pair probes again above parity level on Monday, following shallow 1.0056/0.9950 correction last Thu/Fri.
Fresh strength offsets negative signal on completion of Doji reversal pattern on daily chart after Friday’s close in red.
Fresh risk appetite on eased concerns over US/China trade dispute, boosted the greenback, which requires close above parity level to signal an end od corrective phase and shift near-term focus higher.
Bulls also need close above peaks at 1.0038 (27 Oct 2017) and 1.0056 (10May) to signal continuation of larger uptrend from 0.9187 (16 Feb low) towards targets at 1.0070 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.0343/0.9187) and 1.0170 (07 Mar 2017 high).
Rising 20SMA contained correction (currently at 0.9968) and continues to underpin, but bulls need to break sideways-moving 10SMA (1.0011) to generate fresh bullish signal.
Risk of deeper pullback however remains in play as momentum is weakening and approaching negative territory.
Initial bearish signal could be expected on break below 20SMA, which would expose key supports at 0.9881 (weekly cloud top) and 0.9851 (Fibo 23.6% of 0.9190/1.0056 rally), loss of which would generate stronger correction signal.
Res: 1.0011; 1.0038; 1.0056; 1.0070
Sup: 0.9968; 0.9950; 0.9881; 0.9851