USDJPY – bears attempt to neutralize positive signals from Thursday's bounce; US GDP data in focus
The pair came under renewed pressure on Friday and probes again below 109 handle, following short-lived recovery attempts, inspired by comments from President Trump, which stalled at 109.75.
Fresh weakness attempts to neutralize bullish signal from Thursday strong downside rejection (108.50) and positive close.
Bearish daily techs maintain negative bias with near-term action being capped by falling thick hourly cloud (cloud base is currently at 109.25 and will fall to 109.00 later today.
Bears need close below cracked Fibo 76.4% of 107.31/114.73 rally at 109.06 (after repeated failures on Wed / Thu) to generate stronger bearish signal.
Extension below 108.50 (Thursday’s low) would confirm bearish continuation and expose initial target at 108.12 (11 Sep low) which guards key m/t support at 107.31 (08 Sep low).
Bullish scenario requires stronger recovery through key near-term barriers at 110.00 zone (hourly cloud top / daily Tenkan-sen) to generate stronger reversal signal.
US GDP data are in focus today and expected to provide fresh signals for the dollar. US economy is expected to have grown 3% in Q4, less than 3.2% in Q3 and 3.3% in Q2, but holding at high levels (near the highest in one year) which could be seen as positive signal).
Upbeat US GDP numbers today would offer fresh support for the greenback and possibly spark stronger recovery, while release below 3% would put dollar under fresh pressure.
Res: 109.76; 110.00; 110.15; 110.30
Sup: 108.90; 108.50; 108.26; 108.12