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USDJPY – break above 10SMA needed to generate bullish signal and sideline existing downside risk


The pair bounced back above 109 handle in early European trading on Monday and tests again pivotal barrier at 109.30 (10SMA), following repeated downside rejection at strong 108.70 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 104.63/110.03, reinforced by falling 100SMA).
This sidelines immediate risk of deeper correction from 110 zone, where broader bulls have been capped, as overall structure is still bullish and would keep hopes of fresh attempts towards 110 zone while 108.70 zone supports hold.
Such scenario requires eventual break above 10SMA to open way towards key barriers at 110.03/17 (02 May three-month high / 200SMA).
Basing attempts at 108.70 zone support the notion, however, the downside is expected to remain vulnerable while 10SMA caps.
Bearish scenario requires firm break below 108.70 to open rising 20SMA (108.33) and risk extension towards key supports at 107.97/93 (Fibo 38.2% of 104.63/110.03 / daily cloud top).

Res: 109.30; 109.53; 109.88; 110.03
Sup: 108.76; 108.67; 108.33; 107.93