USDJPY – recovery probes through 4-hr cloud top / 20SMA pivots
The pair moved higher in late Asian / early European trading on Thursday, boosted by rally in Nikkei index and pressuring key near-term barrier at 109.75 (4-hr cloud top) where upside attempts were repeatedly rejected in previous sessions.
Improved situation on techs on lower timeframes is supportive for eventual break above 109.75 pivot (reinforced by falling 20SMA at 109.88) after downside attempts on Tue/Wed saw strong rejections and 10SMA is turning north on daily chart and starting to underpin recovery.
Sustained break above 109.75/88 will be initial signal for extension towards next pivotal barriers at 110.32 (Fibo 38.2% of 113.63/108.28) and 110.48 (02 Feb lower top), break of which would generate stronger bullish signal for reversal.
Caution on repeated failure to clear 109.75 and return below 10SMA, which could generate fresh negative signal as overall picture is bearish.
Res: 109.88; 110.32; 110.48; 110.74
Sup: 109.27; 108.91; 108.45; 108.28