USDTRY attempts to stabilize after pre / post-election bumpy run

 

The USDTRY bounces above cracked key supports (daily cloud top / 200SMA) on Tuesday, remaining in volatile post-election mode and still without clear direction.
The pair attempts to stabilize after roller-coaster run in past two weeks, driven by measures CBRT took before elections and choppy mode on market attempts to digest the news about election results and possible consequences.
Focus turns towards structural reforms, implementation of which was promised in pre-election campaign.
Reforms aim to boost recovery of the economy and regain credibility on the Turkish currency, which was shook on lira strong fall on 22 Mar, when the currency was massively sold in return to foreign currencies in situation of increased uncertainty.
The outlook for lira is expected to remain weak as long as the pair holds above  200SMA and thick daily cloud which continues to underpin.
Bullishly aligned daily techs support scenario.
Cracked Fibo barrier at 5.6354 (Fibo 61.8% of 5.8410/5.3026), marks next pivotal barrier, break of which would unlock 22 Mar peak at 5.8410 and another pivotal barrier at 5.8868 (Fibo 38.2% of 7.1074/5.1323, corrective pullback from new all-time high).
Break here would signal further advance of USDTRY.
Alternative scenario requires sustained break below 200SMA(5.4898) and extension below last week’s double-bottom at 5.3026 to signal more significant advance of Turkish lira.

Res: 5.6080; 5.6354; 5.6980; 5.7140
Sup: 5.5251; 5.5083; 5.4898; 5.4380