USDTRY could extend rally above 4.30 as lira holds in very negative environment

The USDTRY regained traction and heads higher on Monday, after the pair quickly pulled back from new historical high at 4.2897.
Friday’s close in bullish candle with long upper shadow, which signaled strong upside rejection, did not impact bulls and was offset by Monday’s fresh acceleration higher.
Lira moves in strong bearish environment, boosted by Turkey’s double-digit inflation and steps of the CBRT seen insufficient in chasing the inflation, while US monetary policy outlook remains positive and markets keep strong expectations for more aggressive approach of the Fed to the interest rates in 2018.
All these help to maintain strong bearish sentiment for lira, helped by negative technical studies.
The USDTRY pair looks for further upside with round-figure barrier at 4.30 being in immediate focus, along with 4.3124 (Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave C of five-wave cycle from 3.3883, regain of which is needed to validate wave principles and open way towards next psychological barrier at 4.40 and FE 123.6% at 4.4533 in extension.
Shallow corrective action could be expected on overbought studies with broken 4.20 support and former top at 4.1932, expected to contain dips and keep intact rising 10SMA (4.1302).

Res: 4.2725; 4.2897; 4.3000; 4.3124
Sup: 4.2491; 4.2164; 4.2115; 4.2000