USDTRY hits new record high on break above psychological 10 barrier; CBRT in focus as another rate cut is on agenda

The USDTRY cracked psychological 10 barrier at hit new record high in early Monday, extending larger uptrend, as lira’s sentiment remains negative on CBRT’s rate cuts and rising oil prices.
Technical studies are firmly bullish on all larger timeframes, signaling that the uptrend could extend further.
However, overbought conditions on daily and weekly charts suggests bulls may consolidate before making a clear break above 10 level, with corrective dips expected to offer better levels to re-enter the uptrend
The price action is currently rising on the third wave of five-wave sequence from 6.8951 (2021 low), eyeing its FE100% at 10.1200, violation of which would open way for fresh acceleration higher.
Investors await CBRT’s policy meeting on Thursday, as the central bank is expected to cut rates again.
Expectations are for a 1% cut to 15%, though some economists think that the policymakers may push the rates to 14.5%.
Generally, the rate cut will be negative for lira, but current drop in energy prices was a good news for lira that may temporarily ease pressure.

Res: 10.0441; 10.1201; 10.2000; 10.2680
Sup: 9.9487; 9.9000; 9.8700; 9.8314