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USDTRY – strong bullish signal on close above Fibo 38.2% barrier and 55SMA

The USDTRY pair spiked to 3.8458 high on Monday (the highest since mid-Dec) after opening with gap higher on fresh tensions over conflict on Turkey – Syria border as Turkish forces entered Syria.
Today’s extension of recovery leg 3.7303 (correction low, posted on 05 Jan) dented pivotal 55SMA barrier at 3.8407, but without clear break so far.
Bulls require initial signal of continuation on close above cracked barrier at 3.8262 (Fibo 38.2% of 3.9814/3.7303 pullback), with close above 55SMA to confirm and open way for extension towards 14 Dec lower top at 3.8960.
Lira remains vulnerable after CBRT left rates unchanged on last week’s policy meeting, avoiding to react and fight rising inflation, with fresh geopolitical tensions adding on existing pressure.
Underlying uptrend remains intact, with recent correction seen as buying opportunity for final attack at psychological 4.00 target.

Res: 3.8262; 3.8408; 3.8558; 3.8855
Sup: 3.8062; 3.7928; 3.7863; 3.7573