Weak data and worsening geopolitical situation increase pressure on lira
The USDTRY moved higher on Monday and approached last week’s high at 5.5449, the highest after 03 Jan slash crash spike at 5.8767.
Turkish lira was hit today by weaker than expected Turkey’s industrial production (Nov -6.5% vs 5.7% f/c) which presented the weakest numbers in nearly a decade.
American threat to devastate Turkey’s economy if Turkey gets further involved in conflict with Kurds in northern Syria, added to negative signals which could further weaken lira’s already negative sentiment.
Bullishly setup of daily MA’s (10/20/30) and strengthening momentum work in favor of pair’s further advance.
South-heading 100SMA marks next significant obstacle (5.7079) and guards pivotal Fibo barrier at (5.7838), violation of which would generate stronger bullish signal.
Rising 10SMA which tracks pair’s advance offers solid support at 5.4186 which is expected to hold and keep bulls in play.
Res: 5.5449; 5.6484; 5.7079; 5.7838
Sup: 5.4611; 5.4186; 5.3867; 5.3642