WTI OIL price eases further, as US rate outlook offsets persisting Middle East worries

WTI oil extends pullback into second consecutive day after recent rally repeatedly failed to clearly break pivotal Fibo barrier at $78.13.

Subsequent easing is generating an initial signal of reversal and formation of a lower platform at $78.50 zone, as fresh bears broke below 200DMA ($77.65) and converged 10/100DMA’s ($77.12), though close below these levels is required to verify signal.

Technical indicators on daily chart are conflicting as MA’s are in mixed setup, positive momentum is still strong and stochastic is heading south, after forming a bearish divergence, which requires further evidence of near-term direction.

Fresh weakness eyes next targets at $75.81/64 (Fibo 38.2% of $71.40/$78.53 / daily cloud top), which guard lower pivot at $74.97 (50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen), loss of which will weaken near-term structure and open way for deeper fall.

Conversely, return and close above 200DMA would improve near-term picture, but sustained break above recent tops at $78.50 zone will be required to bring bulls back to play.

Oil’s sentiment soured on signs that the Fed is not in hurry to start cutting interest rates, which offset oil-supportive factors from persisting fears about supply from the Middle East and tensions in the Red Sea.

This suggests that fundamentals will remain oil price’s key drivers, with focus turning on comments from FOMC minutes, which would further deflate the price if the US policymakers maintained hawkish stance and signal no changes in the monetary policy in the near future, but also no hints about the time of start of rate cuts.

Res: 76.99; 77.65; 78.50; 79.27

Sup: 76.17; 75.81; 74.97; 74.12