WTI OIL – sustained break above $64 needed to confirm bullish signals
WTI oil price ticked higher on Tuesday and probes again above $64 barrier, as focus turns towards US crude inventories data (API report due today and EIA report due on Wednesday).
Strong bullish signals have been generated on daily chart (Friday’s Hammer and Monday’s bullish outside day) which signal that corrective phase from $64.87 to $62.83 might be over.
Recovery needs firm break above $64 barrier (top of thick 4-hr cloud at $64.04 and Fibo 61.8% of $64.87/$62.83 pullback at $64.09) to generate fresh bullish signal and open way for retest of $64.87 (15 Jan high, the highest since late 2014).
Break here would signal recovery continuation and expose next significant barrier at $66.75 (50% retracement of 2014/2016 $107.45/$26.04 descend).
Bullishly aligned near-term studies are supportive, however, overextended conditions on daily chart and weakening momentum studies, require caution.
Alternative scenario sees increased risk of deeper pullback on violation of key near-term support at $62.80 (correction low posted on 19 Jan) which would expose next strong support at $61.51 (Fibo 38.2% of $56.08/$64.87 upleg).
Res: 64.09; 64.32; 64.87; 65.00
Sup: 63.73; 63.36; 63.04; 62.80