Yen loses ground on signs of extended Fed/BOJ rate gap

USDJPY was sharply higher (up almost 1%) after BOJ’s major shift, though the message from the central bank was seen as dovish on signals that future policy tightening will be moderate, which will keep the big rate gap between the Fed and BoJ and favor the dollar.

Fresh acceleration extends recovery leg from 146.48 higher base (where a bear-trap has also formed) and returned above psychological 150 level.

Almost full retracement of 150.88/146.48 correction adds to bullish bias, with close above 150 to reinforce bullish structure for attack at 150.88 (2024 high), violation of which to expose multi-decade highs at 151.90/94.

Improved daily studies underpin the action but overbought conditions and 14-d momentum still in the negative territory warn that bulls may face increased headwinds.

Dips should ideally stay above 150 level and extended downticks should not exceed 20DMA (149.37) to keep near-term bulls in play.

Markets shift focus towards FOMC meeting on Wednesday, to get more signals about Fed’s next steps, as June rate cut is widely expected.

Res: 150.88; 151.43; 151.90; 151.94
Sup: 150.00; 149.37; 148.92; 148.35