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Aussie dollar falls to multi-week low as softer than expected inflation adds to negative sentiment

Australian dollar remains under increased pressure from risk aversion and holding firmly in red for the fourth consecutive day, with softer than expected inflation data for the first quarter, adding to negative sentiment.

Australian inflation eased further from the highest in over three decades, with stronger than forecasted drop in core inflation, contributing to expectations that inflation have peaked and fading bets for RBA’s 25 basis points rate hike next week.

Fresh weakness in Wednesday’s Asian / European trading hit the lowest in six weeks, in extension of nearly 1% drop on Tuesday.

Break of 0.6620 zone former higher base (also Fibo 76.4% retracement of 0.6563/0.6805) generated strong bearish signal, reinforced by confirmation of a double-top (0.6793/0.6805), opening way for attack at key supports at 0.6563/47 (2023 low of Mar 10 / Fibo 61.8% of larger 0.6170/0.7157 uptrend), with daily close below 0.6620 needed to confirm.

Daily studies in full bearish setup support the action, though oversold stochastic suggests that bears are likely to face headwinds on approach to 0.6563 target.

Corrective upticks should be ideally capped by solid barriers at 0.6620/44 (broken Fibo 76.4% / base of thick weekly cloud) to keep bears intact and offer better selling opportunities.

Res: 0.6620; 0.6644; 0.6656; 0.6697
Sup: 0.6589; 0.6563; 0.6547; 0.6500