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Aussie jumps on fresh risk demand as key 0.70 support zone continue to provide strong headwinds to bears


Aussie rebounds on Monday, lifted by global equity gains, recovering after last week’s nearly 3% fall (the biggest weekly loss since mid-August).
Bears retested very strong 0.70 support zone and managed to register weekly close marginally below 0.70 handle, but faced again strong headwinds (multiple rejections at 0.70 zone were registered in September and November 2020 and December 2021).
Fresh risk appetite inflates risk-sensitive Australian dollar that would likely result in another monthly close above 0.70 support.
Overall structure, however, remains bearish as studies on all larger timeframes (day / week / month) are in negative configuration and larger bias is expected to remain with bears  while the price action stays below the base of thick daily cloud (0.7150).
Markets focus tomorrow’s policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, with wide expectations that the central bank  will start to shift away from its ultra-dovish stance, introduced at the start of the pandemic.
The RBA is expected to announce an end to bond buying program, with forecast for the first rate hike shifting to November 2022 from Q1 2023, although the action will depend on when the inflation will reach a sustainable central bank’s 2 – 3% target, as well as on more evidence of rising wage inflation.

Res: 0.7065; 0.7082; 0.7100; 0.7150
Sup: 0.7000; 0.6967; 0.6921; 0.6900