Bearish bias while the price holds in daily cloud; Fed in focus
The Euro ticked higher in early Monday’s trading but remains near the middle of thick falling daily cloud, following last Thu/Fri penetration and close within the cloud.
Also last week’s long bearish candle after three weeks of rallying, was negative signal.
Fresh bears off 1.1179 (21 Oct high) are consolidating above pivotal support at 1.1064 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0878/1.1179) violation of which would generate initial reversal signal and risk test of daily cloud base (1.1031) which marks next pivot.
On the other side, rising daily bullish momentum and oversold stochastic warn that bears may run out of steam, but any stronger rally requires break and close above daily cloud top (1.1105) to sideline downside risk.
Fed monetary policy meeting is the key event this week, with wide expectations for 0.25% rate cut, but signals that it will be the last cut this year.
The single currency may fall further as rate cut has been priced in, with rate gap seen prompting traders into dollar and increasing pressure on Euro.
Upticks in such scenario could be seen as positioning for fresh downside after Fed announces its decision late Wednesday.
Res: 1.1096; 1.1105; 1.1128; 1.1162
Sup: 1.1072; 1.1064; 1.1031; 1.1000