Bears hold grip ahead of key US PCE inflation data
Gold price is holding within a narrow range on Friday, ahead of key event of the day – release of US PCE data.
Overall picture remains bearish, following recent strong US economic data and hawkish rhetoric from Fed, which contributes to possible scenario of extended rate raising cycle, which lifts the dollar.
Markets await release of PCE data, the US central bank’s preferred inflation measure, which is expected to generate fresh direction signals.
Higher than forecasted figures in January would contribute to current narrative of further policy tightening, which would increase pressure on the yellow metal, while weaker numbers would provide relief.
Technical structure is negative on daily chart (strong bearish momentum, multiple MA’s bear-crosses) and boosted by Thursday’s close below pivotal Fibo support at $1827 (38.2% of $1614/$1959), though the signal needs verification on a weekly close below this level.
Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, but bears continue to face headwinds from weekly cloud base ($1818) and firm break here is needed to signal bearish continuation and expose targets at: $1800 (psychological / daily cloud base) and $1787 50% (retracement of $1614/$1959).
Daily Tenkan-sen ($1843) marks solid resistance which is expected to cap and keep bears intact, while upside acceleration through $1878/88 (daily cloud top / daily Kijun-sen) will be needed to neutralize bears.
Res: 1836; 1843; 1858; 1864
Sup: 1818; 1800; 1878; 1776