Bounce after triple rejection at 200SMA could be initial reversal signal
The pair accelerates higher on Monday, following triple rejection at key 200SMA support, as subsequent bounce is about to complete reversal pattern on daily chart.
Scenario on dip-buying above 200SMA was on the table and is activating now, however, a lot of work at the upside is required to confirm reversal and shift focus higher again.
Fresh strength cracked the lower boundary of strong resistance zone between 5.3132 and 5.3698 (consisting of daily cloud base & 10/55/30/20SMA’s).
Close within daily cloud would generate initial bullish signal, but sustained break above the upper boundary at 5.3698 (20SMA, also slightly above Fibo 38.2% of 5.5449/5.2461 bear-leg) is required to confirm higher low (5.2461) and generate reversal signal.
Lira recently enjoyed strong support from high CBRT interest rates that was so far offsetting negative signals from weak key economic from Turkey, but larger USDTRY’s picture is still bullish and generating initial signals that corrective phase off new all time high might be over.
Res: 5.3386; 5.3480; 5.3602; 5.3698
Sup: 5.2976; 5.2734; 5.2461; 5.2012