Bulls extend to new 4-mth high but face headwinds from strong technical barriers
The dollar maintains firm tone and consolidating under new four-month high (92.59) posted today, in extension of Tuesday’s 0.63% advance.
Upbeat purchasing managers surveys from the EU and Britain showed that both economies accelerated last month had a minimal negative impact on dollar, inflated by concerns over a third wave of coronavirus in Europe, signals of potential US tax hike and rising tensions between the West and China that continue to hurt risk sentiment.
The greenback also benefits from expectations for acceleration of US economic growth on massive fiscal support and optimism over speeding vaccination.
Data from the US provide mixed signals for the dollar as durables fell significantly in February while Manufacturing PMI rose in March but missed expectations.
Two US top financial officials Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chief Jerome Powell, in their testimonies in Congress, highlighted the fiscal support as a heart of recovery, while economic recovery depends on getting the pandemic under control with vaccination being critical point, but supplementary relief must be provided as long as unemployment remains high.
Despite brief probe above former high at 92.51 (Mar 9) bulls are expected to face headwinds from strong barriers at 92.63/65 (Fibo 61.8% of 94.78/89.15 / falling 200DMA).
Fading bullish momentum on daily chart after the indicator diverged from rising price action and overbought stochastic support the notion.
Dips are expected to provide better levels for re-entering bullish market, with 92.00 zone (trendline support, reinforced by rising 10DMA) expected to hold and keep bulls in play.
Caution on break here that may signal extended sideways mode.
Res: 92.65; 92.78; 93.17; 93.45
Sup: 92.33; 92.00; 91.60; 91.47