Bulls to pause for consolidation before resuming
The USDJPY is consolidating under new multi-month high (138.74) as traders collected some profits after last week’s 1.65% advance.
Friday’s close above former tops at 137.90/77 (Mar 8 / May 2) added to bullish signals, however, overbought stochastic in daily chart suggest that consolidation would precede attack at 139.58/140.00 targets (50% retracement of 151.94/127.22 downtrend / psychological barrier).
Daily studies remain in full bullish setup and support the action, with consolidation to ideally stay above 137.13 (broken 200DMA) to maintain immediate upside prospects intact.
Extended dips should find ground above 136.66/44 zone (broken Fibo 38.2% of 151.94/127.22 / rising 10DMA), to keep larger bulls in play.
The dollar was dented by surprise change in rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell, who said that it is unclear if interest rates will need to rise further, as inflation is proving hard to control, but full results of sharp increase in borrowing costs are still to be seen.
The Fed is likely to be more cautious, due to high uncertainty, and would make decision on meeting by meeting basis.
Debt ceiling negotiations unexpectedly broke off on Friday, adding pressure on dollar, but optimism about finding a deal persists and so far limiting negative impact on greenback.
Res: 138.74; 139.00; 139.58; 140.00
Sup: 137.13; 136.66; 136.44; 135.75