Crude Oil – Bears regain control as fears of conflict escalation fade

WTI oil price fell to the lowest in almost four weeks in early Monday, following a short-lived spike higher on Friday, sparked ty Israel’s attack on Iran.

The sentiment changed quickly to negative on fading signals of escalation of the conflict and traders shift focus to fundamentals, with rise in US crude inventories adding to demand concerns and deflating oil prices, along with stronger dollar on fading expectations for Fed rate cut.

Bears probed again through pivotal Fibo support at $81.42 (38.2% of $71.40/$87.61 upleg) but need to register a daily close below this level to validate negative signal.

Rising negative momentum on daily chart and double bear-cross (10/20DMA and 5/30 DMA) weigh on near-term action, with sustained break of $81.42 trigger to open way for attack at next key supports at $80.00/$79.80 zone (psychological / 200DMA and $79.50 (50% retracement).

Broken 30DMA ($82.94) should ideally cap and keep fresh bears intact, while acceleration and close above $84.00/20 zone (round figure / converged 10/20DMA’s) would neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 82.53; 82.94; 83.78; 84.20
Sup: 81.42; 80.70; 80.00; 79.50