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Dollar comes under increased pressure on rate peak speculations; US loans / inflation data in focus

The dollar index started the week in negative mode, pressured by speculations of a peak in Fed rates, as the central bank signaled on last week’s policy meeting.

Some analysts also point to possible start of cutting rates, though the percentage of expectations is still low, as robust US jobs data for April partially offset expectations.

Markets focus on today’s US loans data which is expected to give more details about the size of credit tightening after three us banks failed recently and Apr inflation data (due on Wednesday) which will show whether consumer prices returned to a downward trajectory after surprise jump in March, or price growth is gaining traction.

Daily technical studies remain bearish but oversold, which may obstruct fresh bears on attempts at key support at 100.45 (2023 low of Apr 14), although negative signal on bearish weekly candle with long upper shadow, which comes after a double-Doji, maintains pressure.

Firm break of 100.45 pivot would expose psychological 100 support and signal continuation of larger downtrend from 114.72 (2022 high) towards next target at 97.93 (200WMA).

The action should stay capped by falling converged 10/20DMA’s (101.30) to keep bears intact, though extended consolidation above 100.45 cannot be ruled out until release of US inflation data.

Res: 101.30; 101.54; 101.97; 102.17
Sup: 100.66; 100.45; 100.00; 99.43