Bullish bias above 1.10 support, but near-term action still in a range
The Euro regained traction on Monday after Friday’s action, shaped in long-legged Doji, signaled indecision.
Near-term bias remains with bulls as price action stays above psychological 1.10 support the fourth straight day.
The pair kept positive tone despite significant drop in German industrial production in March (-3.4% vs 2.1% rise in Feb), underpinned by weaker dollar on expectations of Fed rates peak and speculations of possible start of cutting rates.
However, near-term action remains directionless while holding within 1.0942/1.1095 range for the fourth consecutive week, with break of either range boundary to generate fresh direction signal.
The single currency is expected to maintain positive stance while market prices for rate cuts this year, with more information from US loans and inflation data, while German recession risk weighs.
Bullish scenario requires firm break of 2023 peak (1.1095) to signal bullish continuation and expose targets at 1.1193/1.1274 (200WMA / Fibo 61.8% of 1.2349/0.9535).
Conversely, loss of 1.10 support would dent near-term structure, with sustained break of pivots at 1.0960/42 to revive bears and generate initial reversal signal.
Res: 1.1000; 1.1044; 1.1075; 1.1095
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0960; 1.0942; 1.0909