Euro remains within the range but biased higher ahead of NFP
The Euro regained traction and edged higher in early Friday, following drop on Thursday as the ECB slowed the pace of rate hikes with 25 basis points increase.
Repeated rejection at psychological 1.10 support keeps immediate bullish bias, with near-term action also being supported by positive daily studies (14-d momentum in steep ascend after a double failure at the centreline; MA’s in bullish setup).
However, near-term action remains in a sideways mode and moving within 1.1095/1.0960 range) with the most recent double rejection under new 2023 high (Wed / Thu) suggesting that larger bulls are lacking strength for final break higher.
This could be seen as initial warning, although the action would remain neutral while holding within the current range and biased higher while above 1.10 level.
Traders await release of US labor report, which is expected to show further slowdown in job growth and higher unemployment and add support to the single currency on release at / below forecast.
On the other hand, traders worry about rising risk aversion on simmering crisis in US banking sector which could escalate further after the third US bank collapsed and raised fears about the domino-effect.
In such scenario, the euro would come under increased pressure and risk break below strong supports at 1.0960 zone (recent range floor / Fibo 23.6% of 1.0516/1.1095) which would generate initial signal of reversal and a double-top formation.
Res: 1.1075; 1.1095; 1.1154; 1.1195
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0960; 1.0942; 1.0909