Lira may rise through key barriers if CBRT stays on hold today
The USDTRY stands at the back foot for the third straight day but remains within three-week range between rising 200DMA (7.3534) and recovery top at 7.5384.
Lira holding in a larger uptrend vs dollar, which extends into third straight month, after hitting its record low at 8.5816.
Fresh lira’s strength has so far retraced nearly 50% of 2020 5.8382/8.5816 rally, with signs of further extension to dent larger lira’s downtrend and allow for deeper correction.
Daily USDTRY chart shows rising bearish momentum and moving averages in bearish setup, but eventual break of 200DMA is needed to further weaken the structure and open way for test of pivotal supports at 7.2370/7.2100 (low of pullback from 8.5816 peak at 7.2370 / 50% retracement).
Turkey central bank meets today and is expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 17% that would further boost lira, lower inflation and lay foundation for a future policy easing.
Res: 7.4281; 7.4805; 7.5000; 7.5384
Sup: 7.3800; 7.3534; 7.2370; 7.2100