Near-term action remains within thick daily cloud and eyes US jobs data for fresh signals
The Euro is holding in a quiet mode in early Friday’s trading and awaiting US jobs data due later today, for fresh signals.
Trading in US session on Thursday was highly volatile after ECB, as the pair moved within 100-pips range after Mario Draghi’s press conference.
Market understood the message from the ECB as less dovish than expected that helped the Euro to remain at the front foot and maintain bullish bias.
Focus turns towards US jobs data (May NFP 185K vs 263K in Apr; May AHE 0.3% f/c vs 0.2% Apr and unemployment expected to remain unchanged in May at 3.6%).
Release in line or above forecast would boost greenback and send Euro lower, while release below expectations would push the single currency for another attempt through key barriers at 1.1277/84 (daily cloud top / double-Fibo barrier) as weak data would likely add to signals for Fed rate cut, which could be expected as early as next week’s FOMC policy meeting.
On the other side, strong fears in the market about an escalation of trade conflict would keep the greenback under pressure, even on upbeat jobs data, which would prompt Washington to maintain hard line in trade issues with China and Mexico.
Technical studies continue to send mixed signals as strong bullish momentum on daily chart is conflicting with south-heading stochastic, flat RSI and mixed setup of daily MA’s.
Repeated failure to clearly break above 1.1277/84 pivots, despite upticks to 1.1306/08, weighs and keeps in play risk of reversal.
At the opposite side, 55SMA (1.1216) and daily cloud base (1.1202) mark strong supports and fresh bears may struggle to break lower.
Volatile trading is expected after release of US jobs data, however, firm break of either boundary of daily cloud is required for clearer direction signal.
Res: 1.1277; 1.1284; 1.1308; 1.1323
Sup: 1.1250; 1.1216; 1.1202; 1.1192