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US inflation remains in a downward trajectory despite moderate price rise in December – PCE

In December, US. prices rose moderately, keeping the annual increase in inflation below 3% for a third straight month.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% in December, with an annualized gain of 2.6%, meeting expectations.

The Core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.2% in December, resulting in a year-on-year gain of 2.9%, the smallest increase since March 2021.

The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. Monthly inflation readings of 0.2% over time are deemed necessary to bring inflation back to target.

The US economy’s continued resilience has cooled expectations for the start of interest rate cuts in March. June is now seen as the potential beginning of a reduction in borrowing costs.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at the current 5.25%-5.50% range at its upcoming meeting.

Consumer spending, accounting for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, jumped 0.7% in December after a 0.4% increase in November.

When adjusted for inflation, overall consumer spending increased by 0.5% in December, putting consumption on a higher growth trajectory heading into the first quarter.

Real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, saw a solid increase, contributing to a higher growth trajectory heading into the first quarter.

Upbeat growth numbers, as seen in the fourth quarter’s gross domestic product report, also contributed to increased consumer spending, which grew at a solid 2.8% rate in the fourth quarter.