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US job growth likely picked up in November – NFP

US job growth is anticipated to have picked up in November, particularly with the return of thousands of automobile workers and actors after strikes, however, the underlying trend suggests a cooling labor market.

The upcoming employment report from the Labor Department, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to show moderate wage increases, while unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at nearly a two-year high of 3.9%.

The expected job growth and overall economic conditions are likely to solidify the view that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates in the current cycle. The central bank has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.

While employment gains are forecast to remain above the threshold needed to accommodate population growth, it may challenge expectations in financial markets that the Federal Reserve could pivot to cutting rates as early as the first quarter of 2024.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, and there is a focus on the effectiveness of restrictive monetary policy and tight credit conditions in dampening inflationary pressures.

Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to have increased by 180,000 jobs in November, following a rise of 150,000 jobs in October, though this would still be less than the monthly average of 238,800 jobs seen throughout the year.

The demand for workers is moderating, influenced by substantial rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which have curbed demand in the broader economy. The recent government report indicated a ratio of 1.34 job openings for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021.

In summary, while there’s an anticipation of improved job growth in November, concerns about a cooling labor market and the overall economic impact of recent rate hikes remain. The Federal Reserve’s assessment of these conditions will be crucial in shaping future monetary policy decisions.