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USDJPY looks for fresh direction signals from US labor report

USDJPY is holding around the mid-point of Tuesday’s volatile action which moved within 150.16/147.29 range, sparked by signals that Japanese authorities intervened to support weakening yen.

The latest reports from Bank of Japan suggest that there was no intervention, but markets remain cautious as possibility of intervention is still high and await release of US September NFP report, which will provide more evidence about the condition in US labor market and Fed’s action in coming months.

Technical studies on daily chart are still bullish, but the structure on 4-h has weakened, signaling that the downside remains at risk, although long tail on Tuesday’s candle points to very strong bids and so far partially offsets downside threats.

Release of NFP report is likely to be a catalyst for fresh action and will provide fresh direction signals, with solid Sep numbers (at/above 170K consensus) would provide relief to Fed and offer more space for keeping high interest rates for longer period.

On the other hand, weaker than expected hiring in September would signal that so far tight labor market gets hurt from high borrowing cost which would fuel concerns about stronger economic slowdown and require more cautious Fed’s approach to the monetary policy.

Expect fresh direction signals on break of either pivot point, with loss of 147.29 (Tuesday’s spike low / daily Kijun-sen) to risk deeper drop and sustained break above 150 barrier to signal bullish continuation (though with looming risk of intervention).

Res: 148.72; 149.31; 149.70; 150.00
Sup: 148.25; 147.29; 146.10; 145.90