USDJPY may fall further if US retail sales miss in June

USDJPY remains in extended consolidation of last week’s sharp fall, sparked by US inflation data and intervention by Japanese authorities.

Near-term action is holding above 55DMA (157.55) which repeatedly contained dips and marks solid support for now.

Traders also take a breather, awaiting fresh signals from US retail sales, due today, which may further deflate dollar if June numbers miss forecasts, as Further intervention could be expected in such scenario.

Weaker daily studies add to potential bearish outlook, with firm break of 55DMA pivot to expose targets at 154.98 (100DMA) and 154.54 (June 4 higher low) and risk further losses on violation of the latter.

Converged 5/30DMA’s mark initial resistance (159.03), guarding upper pivot at 160.05 (converged 10/20DMA’s.

Res: 159.53; 160.05; 160.25; 161.80
Sup: 157.55; 156.83; 155.71; 154.98