USDJPY – weaker than expected US retail sales weigh but fresh losses were so far limited

The pair hit new daily low at 106.31 after US retail sales fell below expectations in February (-0.1% vs 0.3% f/c) falling for a third straight month.
The negative picture was slightly improved by upward revision of Jan figure (-0.1% from 0.3%), but weak data point to a slowdown in US economic growth in the first quarter.
The greenback remains at the back foot against yen, as US data confirm negative outlook, with today’s action briefly probing above initial barrier provided by 20SMA (106.56).
However, improving momentum studies may keep the pair afloat above pivotal support at 106.27 (10SMA), but limited upside is expected for now.
Eventual break below 10SMA (also the mid-point of 105.24/107.29 upleg) would signal fresh weakness after Tuesday’s strong upside rejection and expose 106.02 (Fibo 61.8%) with extension towards key support at 105.24 (02 Mar) seen on break lower.
Falling 30SMA marks pivotal barrier at 107.32 and only firm break here would sideline downside risk.

Res: 106.56; 107.00; 107.32; 107.67
Sup: 106.27; 106.02; 105.72; 105.45