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USDTRY – rate hike provided temporary relief but short-term future could be turbulent

The USDTRY bounced from post-CBRT low at 4.5119 but upside attempts were repeatedly capped at 4.80 zone signaling that the rate hike two days ago managed to reduce the pace of lira’s fall which approached psychological 5.00 barrier, hours before the central bank’s action on Wednesday.
Rate hike helped to temporarily stop lira’s fall, with recent weakness of oil prices and threats of further easing, expected to support troubled Turkish currency, but another hike on CBRT’s regular meeting on 07 June, is needed to generate stronger bullish signal for lira.
On the other side, markets remain strongly concerned over coming elections in Turkey (24 June) and President Erdogan’s plans to take more control of the economy, which would further weaken central bank’s position and signal turbulent period ahead.
Such scenario, accompanied with further rise of oil prices would have negative impact and send lira back into uncharted territory.
Meanwhile, the pair may hold in extended consolidation which should remain capped at 4.80/90 zone and supported by rising 10SMA (currently at 4.5420).
Only break below 10SMA would sideline upside threats and risk dip towards pivotal support at 4.4644 (Fibo 38.2% of 2018 rally from 3.7153 to 4.9273).

Res: 4.8040; 4.9000; 4.9273; 5.0000
Sup: 4.6858; 4.6413; 4.6374; 4.6000