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Bulls remain fully in play but need break of key 1.1095 barrier to resume; ECB rate decision may spark fresh rally

The Euro is holding firm tone and trading near 2023 high (1.1095) in European trading on Thursday, ahead of ECB policy decision.
Post-Fed rally on Wednesday on 25 bps hike but dovish US central bank’s stance, pushed the price into the upper part of near-term range, though with insufficient strength to break key barrier at 1.1095.

Traders await further signals from the ECB, which is on track to raise interest rates for the seventh time in a row, with open debate about the size of hike, as 25 and 50 bps are both on the table.

Markets slightly favor 25 bps increase, which will signal a slowdown after three straight hikes by 50 basis points but will likely not signal an end of tightening cycle, in which the central bank raised rates by a record 350 bps since July 2022, as primary aim to bring inflation to 2% target is still away and more policy tightening is likely to be expected in the near future.

Technical structure on daily chart remains firmly bullish as moving averages are in positive configuration and the price is gaining bullish momentum.

I addition, false break of key near-term support at 1.0960 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.0516/1.1095) generated bullish signal on formation of a bear-trap pattern, as well as leaving a higher base after a multiple failure at this zone.

Immediate bullish bias is expected to remain while the price stays above psychological 1.10 support and keep focus firmly at the upside for eventual break of 1.1095 pivot, which would signal a continuation of a larger uptrend from 0.9535 (2022 low) towards targets at 1.1195/1.1274 (200WMA / Fibo 61.8% retracement of 1.2349/0.9535 downtrend).

Res: 1.1095; 1.1154; 1.1195; 1.1274
Sup: 1.1020; 1.1000; 1.0960; 1.0909