Dollar index – bulls return to play after a shallow correction; all eyes on US inflation data
The dollar index gained traction on Wednesday, signaling that a shallow correction from new multi-month high at 105.10 (Sep 7) might be over.
Larger bulls took a breather after facing headwinds on approach to key barriers at 105.13/47 (Fibo 38.2% of 114.72/99.20 / weekly Ichimoku cloud base), with three-day pullback being contained by rising 10DMA at 104.35, keeping bullish structure intact.
Technical studies on daily chart are bullish and continue to underpin the action, however markets look for strong direction signal from US Aug inflation data (due later today), which will define Fed’s rate trajectory in the near future.
According to the forecasts, US inflation increased by 0.6% (the largest gain in more than one year), in August after rising 0.2% in July while core inflation, stripped for the most volatile components and closely watched by the Fed, is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% in August.
The Fed should remain highly alerted in such environment and probably still not at the end of a tightening cycle.
The US central bank meets next week, with wide expectations to keep rates on hold in September, though inflation figures will play a key role and possibly be a game changer.
The US policymakers remain cautious as recent weaker than expected economic growth and labor data sent an initial warning that high interest rates started to bite (after the economy was quite resilient until now) and making the task for next rate decision more complicated.
Generally, the Fed will feel less pressure and likely stay on hold next week if August CPI come within the framework of expectations or slightly below, that would add to signals that hiking cycle is likely near the end.
On the other hand, higher than expected consumer prices would signal that the battle with inflation is not over yet and open way for possible further rate hikes.
Initial support lays at 104.51 (10DMA) followed by trendline support / 20DMA at 104.00 zone and 103.71 (Fibo 23.6% of 99.20/105.10 rally), guarding lower pivots at 102.85 (200DMA / Fibo 38.2% / Aug 30 higher low) loss of which will be bearish.
Conversely, sustained break of upper pivots at 105.13/47 would generate initial signal of bullish continuation.
Res: 105.13; 105.47; 105.85; 106.22
Sup: 104.51; 104.00; 103.71; 103.34