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Euro remains at the front foot ahead of German CPI report

The Euro slows speed of recovery ahead of today’s release of German inflation report for March, which is expected to generate fresh signals.

Wednesday’s Doji candle signaled indecision after recovery in past two days retraced over 61.8% of last week’s pullback.

Near-term structure remains bullish overall, but loss of positive momentum temporarily halted recovery rally, although the action is so far holding above initial support at 1.0821 (broken Fibo 50% retracement, reinforced by 5DMA) and keeping near-term bias with bulls.

Also, daily Ichimoku cloud is thickening after Wednesday’s twist and providing support.

Markets await German CPI data to get more hints about near-term direction, as annualized inflation in EU’s largest economy is expected to significantly drop in March (7.3% f/c vs Feb 8.7%) and CPI harmonized with all EU member states (HICP) is seen dropping to 7.5% in March from 9.3% previous month).

Releases in line with expectations or possibly lower would signal that inflation remains in steep downward trajectory, which would reduce need for further policy tightening by the ECB and make the single currency less attractive.

On the other hand, disappointing numbers would keep the central bank on track for further hikes and offer fresh support to euro.
The latest comments from ECB board member that underlying inflation which excludes volatile components, remains elevated despite recent fall in energy costs and may extend the process of curbing inflation and pushing it towards 2% target, contributing to positive outlook for Euro.

Daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at 1.0847 (61.8% of 1.0930/1.0713) is need to confirm bullish structure for attack at 1.0878 (Fibo 76.4%) and extension towards key near-term barrier at 1.0930 (Mar 23 spike high).

Solid support at 1.0821 should continue to protect the downside and guard lower pivot at 1.0793 (rising 10DMA) loss of which would revive bears.

Res: 1.0878; 1.0912; 1.0930; 1.1000
Sup: 1.0821; 1.0793; 1.0764; 1.0737