Oil markets focus on OPEC+ meeting and decision for 2021 output policy

Crude oil prices edged lower from new multi-month highs on Monday but still on track for the biggest monthly gains since June.

US WTI contract rose to $46.21 per barrel, the highest since early March and set for monthly rise of nearly 8%, while London’s Brent oil peaked at $49 per barrel in November.

Oil prices accelerated on fresh optimism that coronavirus vaccine will be ready soon to limit spread of the disease that would boost global economic recovery and support fuel demand.

Oil prices rallied form record lows, hit during the pandemic, but recovery stalled in late August and made correction on slowdown in demand recovery.

Markets focus the crucial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others – known as  OPEC+ group – on Monday and Tuesday, with expectations that major oil producers would delay their initial decision to increase output by 2 million barrels per day in January – around 2% of global oil consumption- after record production cut of 7.7 million barrels per day this year.

The cartel will consider extending existing cuts for three or four months or increasing output gradually from January, although some member countries will be hard to convince about further output discipline.

Market observers expect that a surge in coronavirus cases will not derail current process of oil market rebalancing, but it could reduce demand by approximately 3 million barrels per day, which will partially offset by heating, restocking and demand in emerging markets.