TRY falls sharply after unchanged CBRT
The Turkish lira was hit badly and fell close to historical low on Tuesday after Turkish central bank surprised markets by keeping one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, against wide expectations for 1 – 1.25% hike on today’s policy meeting.
The USDTRY pair spiked to 4.9384, keeping so far 12 July 4.9736 historical high and psychological 5.00 barrier intact.
The CBRT said it kept rates unchanged due to recent spike in inflation and it might maintain tight policy for an extended period.
Lira’s strong sell-off was also triggered by concerns about President Erdogan’s influence on monetary policy as well as doubts about central bank’s ability to control double-digit inflation.
The CBRT’s decision has further soured already negative lira’s sentiment as Turkish currency was in a downtrend since hitting correction high at 4.4473 on 30 May.
Daily / weekly techs remain in full bullish setup and favor retest of 4.9736 high and possible attack at 5.00 barrier, violation of which would open way for stronger bullish acceleration towards projections at 5.0406 (Fibo 123.6%) and 5.1107 (Fibo 138.2%).
Broken 10SMA now marks initial support at 4.8231, while stronger dips are expected to find ground above strong supports at 4.75 (broken 20SMA) and 4.7350 (Tue / today’s lows).
Res: 4.9273; 4.9384; 4.9736; 5.0000
Sup: 4.8231; 4.8000; 4.7500; 4.7350