Turkish lira rises after surprise CBRT rate hike but advance is likely to be limited
The Turkish lira rose strongly against the dollar, gaining 20 big figures in two days after Turkish central bank unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 2% to 10.25% on Thursday.
The CBRT surprised by tightening policy for the first time in two years in attempts to push lira from its record lows as well as to fight rising inflation.
The lira was in a accelerated fall in past two months, with the latest all-time low (7.7160) posted on Thursday ahead of CBRT meeting as markets widely expected the central bank to stay on hold.
Larger picture shows the USDTRY pair in strong uptrend, with the latest pullback after CBRT’s surprise, seen as correction.
Negative signals are developing on weekly chart as momentum is turning south and stochastic diverged from price action and about to emerge from overbought territory.
Pullback so far found footstep at 7.50 zone (psychological / rising 20DMA), but could extend further, as daily indicators point lower.
Weak fundamentals (economy devastated by pandemic, elevated inflation and geopolitical tension with Greece) keep the lira fragile and point to limited correction.
The pair is about to complete extended wave C of five-wave cycle from 5.1323 (Nov 2018 low), with corrective wave four capable of travelling to 7.00 zone, where extended pullback should find firm ground.
Res: 7.6000; 7.6300; 7.7000; 7.7160
Sup: 7.5500; 7.5000; 7.4695; 7.4000