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UK inflation rises above expectations in November

Inflation in Great Britain rose above expectations in November and hit the highest since March, though the negative impact was partially offset unchanged services inflation, one of BOE’s key gauges for underlying inflation.

UK consumer prices rose by 2.6% in November, in line with expectations, from 2.3% in October, while closely watched services inflation stayed unchanged at 5.0%, against forecasts for increase to 5.1%.

Core inflation, excluding the most volatile components, rose by 3.5% in November from 3.3% previous month, but ticked below 3.6% consensus.

November’s data signal that inflation continues to move away from the lowest in over three years at 1.7%, hit on September and 2% target, and also beat earlier BOE’s 2.4% projection for November suggesting that the cycle of consumer prices easing from a multi-decade top at 11.1% (October 2022), might be over.

Although the rise in inflation was in line with economists’ forecasts, it raises warnings of further increase in price pressures in the British economy, fueled by continuous wage growth, new government’s tax increase and higher public spending.

The data keep the British central bank alerted ahead of Thursday’s MPC policy meeting, in which the BOE is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold.

Inflation in UK was higher than in Germany and France, EU’s two largest economies, as well as United States that keeps the Bank of England in slower mode in easing monetary policy, compared to other major central banks, with expectations that inflation may rise to 3% in 2025.

The BOE is likely to stay on path of gradual rate cuts on conflicting signals from fresh inflation rise and economy losing momentum.