USDHKD – sharp pullback extends but still within the range of previous dip

Sharp drop from a narrow multi-week range (7.84/7.85) extends into the second consecutive day and generating an initial reversal signal, though with more evidence needed for confirmation of the signal.

Fresh dip broke through strong support provided by 200DMA (7.8360, which contained earlier pullbacks in mid-March) and cracked Fibo support at 7.8291 (23.6% of 7.7612/7.8500) where bears faced increased headwinds and found a temporary footstep, guarding next key point at 7.8225 (Feb 20 spike low).

Bearishly aligned daily studies add to negative signals, which are partially offset by oversold RSI and stochastic bouncing from the border line of negative territory.

This suggests that bears may run out of steam and to probably see similar scenario like Feb 15-20 pullback, especially if the action returns and closes above 200DMA and signal another false break.

Conversely, daily close below 200DMA would weaken near-term structure, with clear break of 7.8291 and 7.78225 pivots needed to signal deeper pullback.

Fresh weakness was mainly sparked by divergence of HK monetary policy from the countries in the region (higher interest rate), while traders await release of US inflation data due later today, which would define dollar’s near-term direction and influence USDHKD’s performance.

Res: 7.8360; 7.8380; 7.8400; 7.8436
Sup: 7.8284; 7.8225; 7.8207; 7.8161