WTI OIL – consolidation after 5.3% fall on Thursday likely to precede fresh push lower
WTI oil is holding within a narrow consolidation in early Friday after falling 5.3% previous day (the biggest one-day drop since Oct 4), being under increased pressure from growing demand concerns and strong supply.
Short-term price action is holding in a downward trajectory and on track for the fourth consecutive week of losses, since fears of output disruption in the Middle East faded, while demand is weaker and supply grows above expectations, which resulted in strong rise in US crude inventories.
The latest acceleration pushed the price to the lowest in over four months and below the base of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud.
Close below weekly cloud to add to bearish signals and open way towards targets at $71.03 and $70.00 (Fibo 76.4% of $63.63/$95.00 / psychological).
Meanwhile, bears are likely to pause for consolidation as daily studies are oversold and partial profit-taking at the end of the week may keep bears on hold.
Former low of Nov 11 ($74.92) and broken Fibo 61.8% ($75.61) reverted to solid resistances which should ideally cap upticks to keep bears intact and offer better selling opportunities.
Caution on lift above falling 10DMA ($76.51) which would increase risk of attack at upper pivot at $78.08 (200DMA).
Res: 74.47; 74.92; 75.61; 76.51
Sup: 72.16; 71.73; 71.03; 70.00