Dovish ECB and strong uncertainty over Ukraine conflict keep the Euro under increased pressure
The Euro maintains negative tone and probes again through key support at 1.0806, following Thursday’s 1.10% fall after dovish ECB’s stance that pushed the pair to the lowest levels since May 2020.
Subsequent bounce and failure to register close below 1.0806 level after dipping to 1.0754, sidelined immediate downside risk but kept bears firmly in play.
Technical studies on daily and weekly chart remain in bearish setup and support negative scenario for firm break of 1.0806 pivot that would unmask another key support at 1.0635 (Mar 2020 low).
Fundamentals also work in favor of bears, as high uncertainty over the conflict in Ukraine, ECB remaining on hold while other major central banks already started to tighten its monetary policies and lack of unity between EU members in voting for a complete ban on imports of Russian energy, continues to weaken the sentiment.
Brief consolidation above 1.0806 is likely to precede a final push lower, in tlow-volume pre-holiday trading, with limited upticks (ideally to be capped by falling 10 DMA, currently at 1.0876) to offer better selling opportunities.
Only break through 1.0820/30 resistance zone (tops of this and last week) would ease downside pressure and allow for stronger correction.
Res: 1.0820; 1.0858; 1.0876; 1.0930
Sup: 1.0806; 1.0757; 1.0716; 1.0661