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USDJPY – larger bulls started to lose traction; deeper drop to sideline intervention risk

The pair is holding in red for the second consecutive day, as larger bulls were hurt by fresh risk aversion, with overbought daily studies prompting traders to start collecting profits.

Bulls probed through Fibo resistance at 146.10 (76.4% of 151.94/127.22), but so far without clear break higher that keeps in play risk of pullback.

Weekly close below 146.10 pivot would generate initial signal top and keep the downside vulnerable, with return below 145 level (reinforced by rising 10DMA), to increase likelihood of deeper pullback, as this likely ease pressure on Bank of Japan to intervene and support the national currency.

On the other hand, weekly close above 146.10 Fibo level would signal that larger bulls hold grip and are likely to resume after narrow consolidation.

Bearish scenario – loss of 145 handle would open way for attack at next pivotal support at 143.00 (Fibo 38.2% of 137.23/146.56) with risk of deeper fall on break of this point.

Bullish scenario – sustained break above 146.10 would expose targets at 148.82 (Nov 22 peak) and 150.00 (psychological).

Res: 146.10; 146.56; 147.00; 148.82
Sup: 145.00; 144.80; 144.36; 143.00